FEATUREDHacker News Frontpage· rssEN16:21 · 07·09
→AI 2040: Plan A — a roadmap to delay superintelligence, enforce transparency, and replace the race with mutually assured compute destruction
Six authors, including a former OpenAI staffer, propose an international deal to delay superintelligence until 2040 by mandating total AI R&D transparency and letting dozens of companies catch up globally, then locking in a regime of mutually assured compute destruction. They stress this is a recommendation and scenario stress-test, not a prediction. The post argues that current frontier labs acknowledge the risks of loss of control and power concentration yet race ahead anyway, explicitly naming the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Google DeepMind as possibly viewing themselves as the lesser evil. Supplements cover verification, transparency, security, and economic modeling, but the main body does not spell out the political path to getting nations to sign on.
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why featured
Featured · importance 82 · hook + knowledge + resonance
editor take
A former OpenAI staffer and co-authors propose delaying superintelligence to 2040 via total R&D transparency and mutually assured compute destruction, naming four lab CEOs who race ahead despite th...
sharp
This one's worth opening because of the author lineup and how directly they name names. Daniel Kokotajlo is a former OpenAI staffer, and the other co-authors have been active in AI governance circles. They're not making a prediction—they're stress-testing a policy recommendation: mandate total R&D transparency, let dozens of companies globally catch up to the frontier, then lock in a regime of mutually assured compute destruction where any covert superintelligence push gets countered by other nations' compute advantage.
The post explicitly calls out the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Google DeepMind, suggesting they may view themselves as the lesser evil and are racing ahead despite understanding the risks. That's a heavy claim, and the authors acknowledge it's a guess.
Where I'd discount: the political path. The main body doesn't spell out how you get nations to sign on or who enforces the deal. The supplements cover verification, transparency, and economic modeling, but the core "who polices this" question isn't resolved on the main page. Read it as a structured thought experiment, not a ready-to-implement blueprint.
HKR breakdown
hook ✓knowledge ✓resonance ✓